Chris Hogan – Potential Draft Steal?

Chris Hogan may be a steal at his current perceived redraft and dynasty value
Chris Hogan may be a steal at his current perceived redraft and dynasty value

Chris Hogan is a player that is probably on most fantasy football veteran’s radars. He’s on one of the best offenses in the NFL and has certainly shined at times throughout his career. Despite this, as of today he’s being drafted as the 32nd wide receiver in standard leagues (FantasyPros rankings). We believe that Hogan has the ability to be a game changer for dynasty and redraft teams, and should be an easier target than other higher-profile wide receivers who may finish well behind him this season.

So what makes Hogan an asset worth investing in?

Proven Upside

Through week 7 of last season, Hogan was the WIDE RECEIVER 7 and then shortly after that he fell off a cliff. The reason for the fall from grace – a shoulder injury in week 8 that ultimately cost him almost the entire rest of the season. He is by all reports fully recovered from the injury now and still possesses WR1 upside as Tom Brady’s premier deep threat.

Personnel Changes

Brandin Cooks and his 100 or so targets from last season are gone. Those targets are going to be distributed elsewhere and Hogan is a near-lock to be the recipient of some of them. He’ll most likely have to compete with a combination of Julian Edelman, Jordan Matthews, and Braxton Berrios for targets at the WR position but his role is solidified as one of the top-2 wideouts on the team.

The Edelman Suspension

Julian Edelman has officially been suspended for the first 4 weeks of the upcoming season. This only makes Hogan more valuable during that time period asĀ one of the few targets carrying over from last season that Brady can trust. We’ve already seen what he can do without Edelman around last season and it was impressive. Edelman will now be a season and 4 games removed from the last time he started a game and might have to redevelop chemistry with Brady.

The Point

Finishing as a solid WR2 is more than realistic for Hogan if he can stay healthy all season. He’s a great trade target for win-now teams in dynasty due to his advanced age (30) and his disappointing second half of last season. He’s also a great pickup in the fifth round or later in fantasy leagues. Look to trade him if he’s on fire in week 3 or 4 since Edelman will come back week 5 and likely puts a dent in his fantasy production.

-By Alex Murphy

We talk Chris Hogan and much more on our latest podcast episode. Check it out here.

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